Trading Update - Technical Analysis at Work

I bought a stock around mid-day today on a purely technical ground and lost 1% of the value by the end of the day. Uh! That's painful but I still believe in my trade because my horizon is like 3-4 months.

My reasons for the purchase were,
(1) the company is not your speculative Internet company but Citigroup (C) - the financial behemoth valued around @ $224 billion. It definitely is not going broke anytime soon. The lowest it has gotten since the bubble-burst was $26 in fall 2002 - current price is $43.30. Since 2003, the price has cycled between $43 and $47.
(2) Weekly fibonnaci retracement shows strong resistance around $43 (see chart).
(3) Weekly moving average shows the stock bouncing off 200-week moving average line. Again that # is $43 (see chart).
(4) Daily RSI is in the 30s.
(4) Relative performance of financial sector is bottoming-out.
(6) On an intra-day basis, it looked like it broke the month-long downtrend around $42.70.

There are a couple of reasons why I could be wrong.
(1) If the recent high in early June becomes the right-shoulder of a head-and-shoulder formation then I may suffer significant loss in the near-term.
(2) Fundamentals
(a) flattening yield curve could offset stronger economy.
(b) Ain't a great fan of lawyers running banks - bankers should be running banks and lawyers, law firms.
(c) C doesn't have the catch of GS or MWD.
(3) Summer is fast coming to an end. Fall is not always great time for the stock market.

If my trade pans out, then there is 15%-20% upside in 3-4 months. Will see.